Your Barista is a Mentalist
For me, a trip to the local coffee shop is a case study in magicians’ principles of perception at work.
Your barista has a secret power—an ability to predict whether you will leave a tip. And how much it will be.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal article titled “What Your Barista Is Really Thinking as You Are About to Tip” (Oyin Adedoyin/June 11, 2023), these coffee shop wizards possess a skill set that is not unlike that of mentalists.
Just as mentalists can seemingly read minds, baristas can anticipate your tipping behavior. How they’ve mastered this skill is what this blog post is all about. I’m going to uncover the principles that baristas, intentionally or not, use to understand their customers better. Once you’re aware of them, you can adapt these skills to anything you do.
By embracing this mindset of a magician and utilizing the psychology of mentalists, you can learn to read people’s thoughts and anticipate their behaviors.
Ready to have your mind blown? Gran that cup of coffee if you like. Here are the three methods to the baristas’ mentalism, and secrets of how you can use these methods in your professional or personal life.
Method #1: The Law of Large Numbers
Consider the example of a mentalist who consistently predicts that someone will choose the ace of spades—a phenomenon that astonishes most audiences!
However, the ace of spades is simply the most commonly named card by a certain group of people. The mentalist has mastered the art of predicting the choices of their audience because they’ve spent enough time with enough people asking them to “think of a card.”
You’ll probably meet just a handful of magicians or mentalists in your lifetime who will ask you to pick a card. But that performer has asked 10,000+ people the same question. So they have an unfair advantage. As George Bernard-Shaw wrote: “All professions are conspiracies against the laity.”
In a similar vein, your barista can accurately predict whether you will tip or not, and how much, because she’s observed the preferences of countless customers. Her data set, or “sample size” is much greater, allowing her to make more accurate predictions.
While you may only encounter a barista once or twice a day, they have the privilege of serving dozens or even hundreds of customers within the same timeframe. This abundance of experiences allows them to identify patterns and trends, making them appear as if they possess magical fortune-telling abilities.
Why is this skill helpful? How does it benefit your professional work? Knowing how big your data set needs to be in order to provide accurate information is quite helpful. This knowledge will prevent you from quitting too soon or becoming overly confident too early based on the reactions or responses of a limited sample size.
If you don’t already know what your customers are going to do next in any customer interaction or sales process, then you haven’t spent enough time with enough customers — it’s as simple as that.
So the first key to anticipating what people are going to do is to have a large enough history of interactions to base your assumptions on. Then you can break down the patterns and trends and gain valuable insights into your clients, customers, or colleagues. Being able to predict and meet the expectations of your colleagues will build stronger relationships, and set you apart in any business setting.
Being able to predict what your customers will do… well, that will seem like “pure magic” to them and they’ll be astonished, cheering for you to “Do it again! Do it again!” There’s nothing like repeat business.
Method #2: Perspective Taking (Seeing Through Others’ Eyes)
Another crucial aspect of mentalism is the ability to go beyond the surface and connect with people on a deeper level.
To be successful, a mentalist or a magician must see the world through the eyes of their audience, paying attention to their emotions and body language. To infer their thoughts and emotions, its imperative to understand the perspective that the person brings to the table. And especially because the real world isn’t a scientific lab where you’re able to control for conditions, it is imperative to pay attention to all the possible conditions that may be affecting the situation.
When I perform as a mentalist and ask someone to “think of a playing card” or any other object, my thought process goes like this:
What have people similar to this person thought of in the past?
Is this person predictable? Or are there other factors influencing them that I should consider?
Answering #1 gives me a good baseline on what to expect. Thinking about #2 is a more nuanced challenge. I have to consider the surroundings, the other people in their party, what they have seen or said to me already, and how they are interacting with each other. All of these elements help me gauge whether my initial prediction can be relied on or whether I have to consider that this particular person in this particular moment is going to respond differently than others like them.
All of this happens in seconds, moments. I’m watching them, listening to them, and seeing how they’re interacting with me. In psychology this is known as “perspective taking” and it is one of the most valuable skills you can develop in business or in life.
This ability to sense other people’s emotions, coupled with the ability to imagine what they might be thinking or feeling is not limited to mentalists alone; it is a hallmark of a great parent, coach, teacher, reporter, lawyer, doctor, or psychiatrist. Who am I kidding? It’s the greatest tool for anyone and everyone.
It also plays a significant role in the art of being a barista. Your barista, driven by an interest in people and armed with the power of observation, can make her tip predictions only because she’s mastered making the drink and can put her focus on understanding the social context and interpreting the various cues that customers give off.
Why is this skill helpful? How does it benefit your professional work? Cultivating empathy and seeing through the eyes of others is a crucial skill that can profoundly impact your professional work. By understanding the perspectives, needs, and emotions of your clients, customers, or colleagues, you can establish deeper connections and build trust. This empathic approach allows you to tailor your communication and adapt your strategies to better meet their needs.
As a result, you will excel in client or customer interactions, collaborate effectively with colleagues, and foster stronger working relationships. The opposite of that? You’ll be stuck with yourself, self-centered, cocky, and unaware of how other people perceive you or what you do.
Empathy is the cornerstone of exceptional customer service, teamwork, and leadership, making it an invaluable skill for any professional striving for success. So if you don’t think it’s important in your profession, think again.
Method #3: Observing and Influencing Perceptual Transactions
Google “perceptual transactions” and you’ll be flowing in a sea of the cortex, stimuli, brain activity, representation, neuroscience, inferences, and more. While I’m fascinated by all that, I like to keep it simple.
I work with business owners and executives to help them master the role that perception plays in their organizations. So I have my own definition of “perceptual transactions” and a method of identifying and evaluating them.
In the context of a social or business interaction, these transactions are the moments of interaction and engagement wherein the customer sees/hears/feels/smells/says something about you or your product that impacts how they think or feel about that.
Every perceptual transaction is a chance to impact your audience, whether you’re aware of it or not. When I work with businesses, part of my process is helping them to identify and enhance all of these transactions and then elevate them one by one to meet the desired effect.
Within the realm of mentalism, magicians aren’t just passive observers of these “perceptual transactions.” They are active creators and directors of the play, forcing certain interactions and seeing how people respond.
One technique a mentalist could use is to “test” the audience by asking them questions and seeing how they react or respond to one another. Combining this with the “law of large numbers” allows the mentalist to categorize the audience’s reactions and fine-tune their predictions.
Another technique is to use the transaction to condition the audience, leading them deeper and deeper into the process. While they think they’re making free choices, only the mentalist knows that each perceptual choice is narrowing their window of options, making it that much likelier that they will choose what you want (or expect) them to pick.
Sounds pretty amazing, doesn’t it? Well, that talented barista is doing the same thing.
It’s not a sixth sense. It’s not a superpower. It’s just paying attention to a lot of people, and setting specific markers of interaction to make your judgments more reliable.
What are the “perceptual transactions” between the customer and the coffee shop? Let’s watch the customer pulling into the parking lot; walking into the store; standing in line; greeting the barista; making their order. How people enter, who they are with, and how they speak — all of these matter. Every one of these transactions, if paid attention to, leaves clues.
Let’s look back at the Wall Street Journal article that inspired this whole post. Here’s how one barista describes her prognostication powers:
“The people who engage in conversations are usually the biggest tippers,” said Samantha Sanchez Kawano, 24, manager of Tidal Tea. Regulars and people who bring in their dogs are usually generous, too, she said. She has also noticed that when she speaks Spanish with customers who speak the language, they usually tip more.
Baristas who pay attention to the customers start to pick up on patterns that give them these amazing powers of prediction. I bet you that some of them can even predict what drink someone is going to order before they even say a single word. So can you do this in your line of work?
Why is this skill helpful? How does it benefit your professional work?
Paying attention to, creating, and watching your customer’s perceptual transactions with your business can be an amazing way to enhance their experience. By paying attention to the context and dynamics of these interactions, you can gain a deeper understanding of how others perceive your product, your brand, or the people in your organization.
Using these perceptual transactions and comparing a customer’s actions with a previous data set, while accounting for changes in context, gives your business a — dare I say it— magical advantage. Now you can do all the fun stuff: adapt your communication style, tailor your presentations, and effectively influence the thoughts and decisions of those you interact with.
The ability to observe and influence these transactions is the secret super-power to being a mentalist at your job. Whether that job is serving coffee or serving legal papers.
🪄 Takeaways
Have you finished that coffee?
Are you now more impressed by baristas’ ability to predict if you’re going to tip? Or are you slightly disappointed knowing that the secret is simply: paying attention to the people you serve?
I hope this peek behind the scenes of how magic is done and coffee is served will motivate you to do just that: pay attention.
Here’s a quick recap of what you can do to improve your understanding of others and a few actionable takeaways that will have a positive impact on your work:
Expand your “data set” to help sharpen your observation skills: Take the time to observe patterns and trends in your professional interactions. And get as much data as possible. Notice how clients, customers, or colleagues behave, what they respond positively to, and what challenges they perceive. This heightened observation will give you valuable insights to tailor your approach and deliver exceptional service or support.
Cultivate empathy to go beyond the surface: Practice seeing situations through the eyes of others. Consider their perspectives, emotions, and needs, and use this understanding to shape your communication and actions. Empathy allows you to build stronger connections, foster collaboration, and create a positive work environment.
Be aware of all the perceptual transactions in your business: Pay attention to the context and dynamics of your interactions. Be mindful of how others perceive your actions, words, and intentions and what is impacting their experience. Use this awareness to enhance every interaction, create new ones, and eliminate the transactions that are creating negative perceptions in your business or sales cycle.
Implementing these perception principles in your professional life can have a transformative effect on your life or business.
Most people think of perception as a complete and whole thing that’s mysterious and unknowable. What I emphasize is that perceptions are made up of thousands of tiny moments; powerful or simple, blatant or subtle. The variety of perceptions is amazing. But what’s even more amazing to me is how little people do to consciously impact those perceptions.
Next time you’re ordering your coffee, see what information you can pick up on. Better yet, grab that coffee and have a seat. See if you can start making predictions about customers in a coffee shop. It might be more fun than you think! And it may inspire you to start doing the same in your business.
Who knows — maybe you’ll start paying attention so well, you too can predict the future.
What else can I teach your business?
Embrace the mindset of a magician and unlock the power of Think Like A Magician™ in your professional life. As "The Business Magician," I teach and inspire business audiences though my motivational speaking programs and magic show performances.
Together, at conferences and meetings around the world, we explore the secrets of communication, how to read minds and how to craft perceptions that transform reality.
Tell me about the event your company is planning, and let’s start the conversation so I can help your organization foster perceptions and conjure up meaningful magic.
I’ll teach you and your people how to be a mentalist. So we can read minds together.
